Preseason Rankings
Big East
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Villanova 90.6%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 6 15 - 5 +17.9      +9.9 4 +8.0 8 64.9 277 0.0 1 0.0 1
12 Creighton 77.7%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 8 13 - 7 +15.3      +10.3 3 +5.1 53 69.2 168 0.0 1 0.0 1
34 Connecticut 53.3%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 10 11 - 9 +11.3      +6.7 28 +4.6 63 69.4 160 0.0 1 0.0 1
41 Providence 49.2%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 10 - 10 +10.9      +5.0 55 +5.9 33 69.4 159 0.0 1 0.0 1
44 Seton Hall 46.2%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 10 +10.5      +5.8 41 +4.7 61 72.2 83 0.0 1 0.0 1
45 Marquette 45.8%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 10 +10.3      +6.6 31 +3.8 78 73.8 60 0.0 1 0.0 1
51 Butler 42.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 9 - 11 +9.8      +4.6 62 +5.2 48 60.4 337 0.0 1 0.0 1
58 Xavier 40.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 11 +9.3      +4.2 66 +5.1 51 68.5 194 0.0 1 0.0 1
73 St. John's 27.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 8 - 12 +7.8      +3.9 76 +4.0 69 78.9 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
79 DePaul 20.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 8 - 12 +7.1      +3.6 84 +3.5 82 73.5 67 0.0 1 0.0 1
88 Georgetown 18.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 7 - 13 +6.2      +4.1 69 +2.1 110 73.2 69 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Villanova 2.4 46.2 20.9 11.9 7.2 5.0 3.4 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3
Creighton 3.4 26.4 20.8 14.3 11.1 8.4 6.5 4.7 3.5 2.1 1.5 0.7
Connecticut 5.2 8.7 11.8 12.3 12.1 11.0 10.3 9.6 7.9 6.7 5.9 3.7
Providence 5.4 8.1 11.2 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.1 9.4 9.3 7.3 6.1 4.7
Seton Hall 5.7 6.8 9.3 11.1 11.5 11.1 10.4 10.3 9.4 8.2 6.9 5.0
Marquette 5.8 6.6 9.2 10.2 11.3 10.9 10.9 10.2 9.5 8.0 7.5 5.7
Butler 6.0 5.5 8.7 9.7 10.2 10.2 10.8 10.2 10.4 9.1 8.4 6.8
Xavier 6.3 4.5 7.1 8.8 9.7 10.7 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.4 9.3 7.7
St. John's 7.1 2.7 4.7 6.3 7.9 9.0 10.4 10.6 11.4 12.1 12.9 12.0
DePaul 7.5 1.7 4.3 5.4 6.5 7.9 8.9 10.3 12.0 13.0 14.5 15.5
Georgetown 7.9 1.5 2.9 4.4 5.4 6.8 8.0 9.7 11.4 13.9 16.3 19.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Villanova 15 - 5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.7 5.4 7.0 8.8 10.4 12.8 12.8 12.1 10.3 7.5 2.9
Creighton 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.2 6.7 8.8 9.5 10.7 11.1 10.9 9.7 8.0 5.5 2.9 0.9
Connecticut 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.2 5.3 6.8 8.7 9.0 10.1 10.5 9.6 9.3 7.4 5.8 4.2 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2
Providence 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.7 4.3 5.6 7.7 8.8 9.4 9.7 10.3 9.6 8.3 7.1 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
Seton Hall 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.5 8.0 9.3 10.2 10.2 10.4 9.2 8.1 6.4 4.5 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1
Marquette 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.0 6.2 8.2 9.2 10.6 10.3 10.2 8.7 7.4 6.1 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
Butler 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.2 5.5 7.3 9.0 9.8 10.4 9.9 9.3 8.5 6.8 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1
Xavier 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.2 4.5 6.6 8.1 9.0 10.3 10.4 10.0 9.1 8.1 6.1 5.0 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
St. John's 8 - 12 0.3 1.5 2.8 4.7 6.6 8.6 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.6 7.7 6.3 4.4 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
DePaul 8 - 12 0.6 1.9 4.0 6.2 7.6 9.1 10.6 11.2 10.0 9.4 7.9 6.8 5.2 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 0.8 2.6 5.3 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.2 10.9 9.8 8.3 7.3 5.7 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 46.2% 36.6 8.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Creighton 26.4% 19.0 6.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Connecticut 8.7% 5.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Providence 8.1% 5.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 6.8% 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marquette 6.6% 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Butler 5.5% 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Xavier 4.5% 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 2.7% 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
DePaul 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 1.5% 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 90.6% 33.1% 57.5% 1   23.7 16.6 12.9 9.0 7.1 5.8 4.4 3.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 86.0%
Creighton 77.7% 20.3% 57.4% 4   9.9 10.5 10.2 8.4 7.3 7.2 6.0 5.1 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 22.3 72.0%
Connecticut 53.3% 8.0% 45.3% 9   2.2 3.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.4 5.9 5.8 5.1 4.1 3.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 46.7 49.3%
Providence 49.2% 7.7% 41.5% 9   2.5 3.4 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.5 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 50.8 45.0%
Seton Hall 46.2% 6.4% 39.9% 11   2.3 2.9 4.0 4.0 4.8 5.3 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 53.8 42.6%
Marquette 45.8% 6.5% 39.3% 11   1.8 2.5 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 54.2 42.0%
Butler 42.0% 5.7% 36.2% 1.5 2.2 3.1 3.2 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 58.0 38.4%
Xavier 40.1% 4.8% 35.3% 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.7 3.3 4.3 4.5 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 59.9 37.0%
St. John's 27.5% 3.1% 24.4% 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.1 2.6 3.0 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.6 25.2%
DePaul 20.3% 2.5% 17.8% 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 79.7 18.3%
Georgetown 18.4% 2.0% 16.4% 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 81.6 16.7%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Villanova 90.6% 2.0% 89.8% 75.7% 51.4% 32.3% 19.4% 11.4% 6.6%
Creighton 77.7% 3.4% 76.3% 58.3% 34.8% 19.1% 10.5% 5.2% 2.8%
Connecticut 53.3% 4.1% 51.4% 32.7% 15.6% 7.3% 3.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Providence 49.2% 4.7% 47.1% 30.2% 15.0% 6.9% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Seton Hall 46.2% 4.5% 44.0% 28.1% 12.8% 5.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Marquette 45.8% 4.1% 43.8% 27.0% 12.6% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4%
Butler 42.0% 4.1% 40.0% 24.0% 10.8% 4.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4%
Xavier 40.1% 3.9% 38.0% 21.9% 9.5% 4.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
St. John's 27.5% 3.5% 25.5% 14.1% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
DePaul 20.3% 2.5% 19.0% 10.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Georgetown 18.4% 2.7% 17.0% 9.1% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.3 5.0 22.8 37.3 25.5 8.2 0.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.9 0.0 0.5 7.1 27.1 37.4 21.7 5.7 0.5
2nd Round 99.8% 3.3 0.2 3.9 18.4 35.5 28.4 11.4 2.0 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 91.7% 1.8 8.3 32.9 37.9 17.0 3.5 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 67.9% 0.9 32.2 47.1 18.1 2.5 0.2 0.0
Final Four 41.6% 0.5 58.4 36.7 4.8 0.2
Final Game 22.8% 0.2 77.2 22.0 0.8
Champion 12.2% 0.1 87.8 12.2